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K-State Research and Extension
123 Umberger Hall
Manhattan, KS 66506-3401
785-532-5820
extadmin@ksu.edu

November 17, 2020

Georgia Tech’s COVID-19 Event Risk Management Assessment Tool

Submitted by Gregg Hadley

I am sure that most of you think, “What is the probability that someone with COVID-19 attends the event I am planning?” when making decisions for your upcoming Extension meetings and activities. Having a tool that estimates that probability can greatly help our agents, Extension Board members, and specialists in deciding whether to hold activities face-to-face or virtually.

Dr. Megan Kennelly, our head of Plant Pathology, forwarded me a link to such a tool developed at Georgia Tech. Because plant pathologists understand epidemiology, I took note. This tool can be found at:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?fbclid=IwAR0VZcoZP-vcjB4MRs4RfI6WjR8gKIEoovpi_4d7aBSIZd17qnF6lYwCjy4.

The tool is simple. You tell the tool the size of the event you are planning by using a slider bar. You then select the appropriate ascertainment bias, 5 or 10. The ascertainment bias is the number of undetected COVID-19 positive cases for every detected COVID-19 positive case within a county. Selecting “5” means that the model will assume there are 5 undetected cases for every detected case. Selecting “10” means that the model will assume there are 10 undetected cases for every detected case. Use “10” ascertainment bias if you believe there isn’t a lot of testing going on in the county where the event will be held. Use a “5” if you believe there is.

The final step is to use your computer mouse to hover over the county where the event will be conducted. A screen will pop up giving you the percent probability that at least one person will be COVID-19 positive. If it is a multi-county event, you may want to get that probability for all of the counties that are likely to have participants at the event or activity.

I encourage you to use this tool when making your plans for meetings and events. Share that information with your Extension Boards, Program Development Committees, and colleagues who are helping with the event. It will help you to make a more informed decision about whether to conduct the event in a virtual, face-to-face, or hybrid manner.

Please note that the web page times out quickly. If you pull it up before a Program Development Committee or Extension Board meeting, it may go to sleep before you get to that portion of your agenda. You might want to bookmark it and go to it when you do want to discuss it.

Of course, virtual is the best and preferred educational delivery and meeting method during our COVID-19 challenge for all Extension meetings, events and activities. If you decide that an activity needs to be hosted in a face-to-face manner, everyone needs to wear masks; social distancing should be in place; everyone should be encouraged to and be able to frequently wash and sanitize their hands; and work stations need to be cleaned and sanitized regularly.